How will the final convention betting market play out?

After the scintillating speeches overnight from Bill Clinton and Joe Biden there’s the big rally tonight in the massive stadium in Denver and the Obama campaign must be more hopeful that their convention will end giving it the boost they had planned for.

So how is it going to affect the McCain campaign particularly the choice of VP. ? We won’t have to wait long. For at noon, local time, tomorrow at Dayton in the crucial swing state of Ohio the 72 year old Vietnam veteran will tell us so resolving the last White House betting market prior to the election on November 4th.

Like Obama’s choice this has been kept a very close secret and it might be that the final decision is only just being made today. The McCain camp will want to have kept their options open right to the end as they try to work out who would be best to fight the Obama-Biden partnership.

There’s been a lot of speculation that McCain might choose a woman and a number of names have been mentioned by pundits. Certainly it would change the media narrative and switch the focus to the McCain campaign over the weekend.

Unlike the Democratic ticket the Republican line-up has attracted nothing like the interest in the UK and betting has been much lighter – none more so than on the person who has emerged this week as a possible contender – Senator Kay Bailey from Texas. As I write just £713 has been traded on her on the Betfair exchange which is just a fraction of my possible winnings from the 40/1 bet on her I placed with Ladbrokes on Monday.

This is how “The Swamp” makes her case: “Some observers believe that if McCain chose Hutchison, the Republican senator from Texas, that could really shake up the presidential race and seize crucial convention momentum from Obama…Selecting a woman as his vice presidential pick might appear to be pandering to women upset that Hillary Clinton wasn’t selected as Obama’s running mate. But pandering often works, which is why politicians do it..It would also add a sense of historic possibilities to the Republican ticket, something none of the men being mentioned would do.”

I’ve got a sprinkling of money on the other female possibilities, including the former Miss Alaska, Sarah Palin who two years ago was elected governor.

Mitt Romney remains the favourite with the current governor of Virginia Minnesota, Tim Pawlenty, also in the frame.

As I’ve said before VP nominee betting is a mugs’ game but that doesn’t stop us wanting to have a punt. Who knows what McCain is going to do? Thankfully we do not have long to wait.

Mike Smithson