..but yet another poll points to a Cameron-landslide

What is probably the final poll of July, from YouGov in the Daily Telegraph, is out this morning and the numbers show a minor improvement for Labour compared with the latest survey from the firm earlier in the month. Note that my comparisons are with that poll, not June’s Telegraph survey.

The shares with changes on the last poll from the pollster are CON 45 (-2): LAB 26% (+1): LD 17% (+1).

The fieldwork took place from Wednesday to Friday so took place mostly before the Glasgow East by election result was known and the massive speculation about Brown’s job prospects that have been dominating the headlines ever since. Generally the vast bulk of YouGov’s online responses come in the first couple of days and my guess is that the post by-election element of this was less than a fifth.

So the polls of the past fortnight have been broadly in the same ball-park ranging from ICM’s 15% Labour deficit to the ComRes figures in the Indy on Saturday which had a 22% margin. However you crunch the data there is no comfort for Brown.

The dramatic Labour collapse that followed Darling’s budget in March has been sustained and the time available for a recovery before the presumed May 2010 general election date has got shorter. The directly comparable polls are also worse for Labour now than they were for John Major’s Conservatives at the same stage before the 1997 election.

For those who like risking their money on the commons seats spread betting markets the latest batch of polls, on top of Glasgow East, present a real predicament. For if Brown is forced out or goes of his own accord then a new leader could come in and enjoy a honeymoon. So I’m biding my time.

More from ComRes: People, by 52% to 36% no longer regard the Tories as the “nasty party” according to more data, just out, from Saturday’s poll for The Independent.

A total of 22% of Labour supporters and 44 per cent of Lib Dems believe Dave would make a better prime minister than Gord. Overall, 52 per cent of the public agree, while 34 per cent disagree. Scotland is the only part of Great Britain which prefers Brown.

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Mike Smithson