It’s back to a 22% Labour deficit

The second poll of the night, the monthly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has the following with changes on the last published survey by the pollster for the Daily Telegraph a fortnight ago. CON 47%(+1): LAB 25%(-3): LD 18%(+3)

The ICM poll showing a Labour lead of 14% in Glasgow East was covered in the previous thread.

The YouGov survey will come as something of a blow for Labour because the previous numbers from the pollster had shown something of a recovery – at the expense mostly of the Lib Dems. As it is the latest shares from the firm are exactly the same as they were a month ago.

Labour had also seen it’s position in relation to the Tories improve in last Tuesday’s Populus poll which reported a gap of just 13%.

These numbers from the five major polling firms are going to move up and down but the overall picture is the same – the Tories are in the 40s and Labour are in the 20s – which suggests a substantial Tory majority after the next election.

The challenge for Brown and his colleagues is that as each month goes by we are closer to the final date possible for a general election. It’s now well within two years and the numbers are telling the same story. It’s self-evident I know but the time for a recovery is getting shorter by the day.

Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems will take some comfort from the 18% from YouGov- the firm that since the 2005 general election the firm has generally been giving the lowest figures for the third party.

In the general election betting there has been a move away from Cameron’s party on the spread markets and as I reported on Friday these point to an overall majority of just 26 seats. This is well below the seat totals you get if you put the polling numbers into the commons seat predictors and I think that there is real value there. I have started buying Tory seats again.

Mike Smithson