But will turnout be high enough to justify Davis’s stance?

In admittedly very light trading what money there has been placed during the day on the Haltemprice and Howden by-election has been on David Davis being returned with a vote share of in excess of 80%.

The above chart shows the changing price on Betfair’s market over the past 24 hours and the trend is clear. Those few punters who have been prepared to bet have put it on the former Shadow Home Secretary getting a massive majority – certainly in percentage terms.

On election days there is often a fair bit of information about from activists and my guess is that some of them have been having a flutter.

The real question is turnout and how valid the result will be if it is considerably down on 2005.

Mike Smithson