What are the “other” contenders going to do to the Davis percentage?

It’s only six days to go before Haltemprice and Howden – the by election where the former shadow home secretary, David Davis, is defending his seat made vacant by his resignation over the 42 day detention decision.

With both Labour and the Lib Dems standing aside there’s an odd assortment of 25 others who will be on the ballot. It’s hard to see anything other than a big victory on a very low turnout for Davis.

But leaving him aside who will head the lists of “others” – who will make it to second place? William Hill did have a market up on the H&H result excluding Davis and you even had the luxury of being able to bet each way. My money is on Jill Saward – the rape victim campaign who came to prominence after the appalling Ealing vicarage attack 22 years ago. I got 8/1 and took the each way option.

The market is not operating at the moment – but watch the William Hill site in case it comes back.

The BNP are skipping this one as well although there is a National Front Britain for the British candidate as well as a Green.

My guess is that Jill – who showed immense bravery when she went public following her ordeal – is going to get a good vote. Her campaign message – “I am standing in this by-election to give victims a voice” – is very powerful and is likely to resonate well.

Another bet that might be worth considering next week is on the percentage vote that Davis ends up with. Betfair has three options – below 70%; 70-80% and above 80%. Given that everybody assumes a Davis victory then electors might be tempted to show their support for Jill Saward or one one of the three or four leading other candidates. I can see the Davis figure getting below 70%.

Mike Smithson