Could Obama win by more than the bare margin? The latest polling numbers have been good for Barack Obama ahead of his coming battle with John McCain for the White House. Today’s LA Times/Bloomberg poll has a 12% margin which rises to 15% when the the minor candidates of Nader and Barr are added into the mix. Add on to that his decision to avoid public financing for the campaign and the signs are that he’ll be able to outspend…
Would he get the kudos for putting his career on the line? The latest ICM poll means that all the main pollsters who report at least monthly on public opinion are showing almost exactly the same figures. Three have Labour at 25% the other, ComRes, has it at 26%. And the Tory shares and overall leads are in the same ball-park as well. There can be no doubt about what would happen if there was an immediate general election. Add…
The polling continues to move in just one direction The June survey from ICM for the Guardian, the longest running polling series in the UK media, is just out and reinforces the trend seen from other pollsters. The figures with comparisons on the last ICM poll three weeks ago are: CON 45% (+3): LAB 25% (-1): LD 20% (-1) The move comes in spite of some difficult media coverage for Cameron’s party over nannygate and MEP expenses. Putting these numbers…
Are Labour’s backers going on strike? Everywhere I go and almost everybody I talk to seems to have their own theory on what will bring Gordon’s tenure at Number 10 to an end. “It’s going to be David Miliband who’ll put the party ahead of his prospects”; “It’s going to be on health grounds”; and today it’s the suggestion that it will be pressure from party donors that will finally determine the issue. This was from Rachel Sylvestor in today’s…
Is it going to fill a gap in the market? The new monthly glossy magazine, Total Politics, was launched at a glitzy party in Westminster last night and has the potential to become a must read for all those interested in the mechanics of elections and predicting political outcomes. The main backer, Michael Ashcroft, and Iain Dale believe there is a real gap in the market for a publication that takes this area of activity seriously and I am sure…
Has Brown the strength to reclaim the word STRONG? It’s hard to credit it now but in those heady days of the final week of September 2007 Labour party spinners were putting it about that their polling had discovered a new type of voter that they termed “Gordon Conservatives”. These were people, it was claimed, who had voted Tory in 2005 but had then decided to support Brown’s changed Labour party On September 24th 2007 Ben Brogan reported: “Remember the…
Why there’ll be no more bets on this by me With most political betting I like to feel that for most of the time I’m ahead of the game and that if I call an outcome wrongly then I’ll be quick enough to recognise it and get out smartly at minimal cost. The area that completely foxes me is what will be the big betting area in the next couple of months – who will be Barack Obama’s and John…
The money goes on a poor Henley performance Given that this is the final Sunday before the Henley by election the only active market on Thursday’s outcome has been on whether Labour will lose its deposit. The chart shows the betting odds expressed as an implied probability. The day started with the price at 1/2, then the market was suspended only to be re-opened an hour or so later at 2/5 and then to tighten further to 1/3 by the…