The Brown anniversary surveys come thick and fast

After a by-election and two new national opinion polls to digest there’s another new survey tonight – by ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent. This was carried out on Wednesday and Thursday so is the most up-to-date of the polls.

The shares are with changes on the last ComRes poll a fortnight ago are: CON 46% (+2): LAB 25% (-1): LD 18% (+1).

Both the Tory share, 46%, and the 21% margin over Labour are the highest ever for a survey from ComRes.

A key element in the detail and one of the reasons why the poll is so good for Cameron’s party is that 74 per cent of Tory supporters say they are “absolutely certain” to vote. This compares with 58 per cent of the Labour supporters and 50 per cent of the LDs. As Andrew Hawkins of ComRes points out: “The Tories are ahead of Labour amongst every age and social group and in every region except Scotland.”

Given the problems that “nannygate” and David Davis have created for their party it is extraordinary that these don’t seem to have impeded the Tory progress.

Mike Smithson