Reports coming onto the last thread from on the ground in Henley suggest that the BNP have done quite well – there’s even talk of them getting into third place.

Such a result would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons. We’ll know the result in a few hours.

There’s be no indication from the betting markets that this is going to be anything other than a Conservative victory. The big questions are how close the Lib Dems will have got and whether Labour has got above 5% of the vote – the proportion required to keep its deposit.

Mike Smithson