A new poll by ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday gives the Tories an 18% lead. These are the numbers and changes compared with the last poll by the firm at the end of May. CON 44% (+1): LAB 26% (nc): LD 17% (-2): OTH 13% (+1) CON 44% (nc): LAB 26% (-4): LD 17% (+1)

But the pollster found that Tory support dropped sharply after David Davis announced he was standing down. In interviews before 1pm on Thursday, the Tories stood at 48%; in interviews carried out afterwards they were on 41%.

The change might reflect the overwhelming media view on the Davis announcement that this would harm the Tories.

What I am hoping that one of the pollsters will provide tonight is a view the stance that Davis is taking.

ComRes poll update: The head of the firm, Andrew Hawkins, tells me that 40% of the sample was pre the Davis news and 60% afterwards. So we are talking of figures of about 400 to 600.

Mike Smithson