Populus has Cameron’s Tories leading by 20%

This is becoming so normal that it is hardly news any more – another devastating poll blow for Gordon Brown’s Labour government and this time from the firm that generally shows the party in a better light.

The numbers from the June Populus poll for the Times are: CON 45% (+5): 25% (-4): LD 20% (+1). Fieldwork took place from Friday until Sunday so the party shares do not seem to have been affected by “Nannygate”.

The last poll took place in the immediate aftermath Boris’s victory in London and there was a touch of euphoria in the air. This time there is no such explanatory factory apart from the continued decline of Labour in the eyes of the voters.

Unlike ICM which has adjusted its methodology in the past month in a way that makes it a tad more favourable to the Tories the Populus approach remains the same – thus making these figures, the worst from a conventional telephone pollster, even more appalling for the government.

So the past week has seen three surveys from the the leading phone pollsters – ICM’s Labour deficit was 16%; ComRes’s 17% and now Populus is at 20%.

Will it impact on Gordon’s future? You would have thought that it would but I’m still not so sure.

Mike Smithson