This looks like a great value bet With the main contest in Crewe & Nantwich now a foregone conclusion is it worth betting on the Lib Dems squeezing out Labour for the runner-up slot? There are a whole series of reasons why this could be a value bet. The odds are good. This morning Ladbrokes are offering 12/1 on this eventuality and are accepting reasonably large bets. The Lib Dems “final 24 hours” record. Where the party is particularly strong…
Obama wins majority of pledged delegates but the race goes on This is the new Clinton TV commercial for South Dakota which is holding its elections on June 3rd on the last day of this prolonged primary campaign for the Democratic nomination. It has just been issued even though overnight Obama took a gigantic step forward by securing a majority of pledged delegates. Hillary had her expected big victory in Kentucky but Barack has built up a big margin in…
Chickendancer Will he win enough pledged delegates to get a majority? The sign is from Prosperity, South Carolina and overnight is probably the last occasion when the picture can be used because it’s highly likely that Obama will pick up enough pledged delegates to be able to claim a clear majority. There are 51 at stake from today’s Kentucky primary and 52 from Oregon. He just needs 25 of them to be able to claim he’s won on this count….
The chart shows the changing Labour price in the Crewe and Nantwich betting illustrated as an implied probability. Almost inevitably the money has moved away from Labour following the opinion polls suggesting that Gordon Brown has very little chance of saving the seat. You can still get money on the Tories but not very much. The price has been squeezed down to 0.05/1 – which means that a successful £10 bet would produce a profit of just 50 pence. Mike…
I am out in London all day and am unable to post. Please use this continuation thread. Thanks to Icarus for the picture. Mike Smithson
Could this bring the Brown’s leadship issue to a head? Word reaches me that the former Health Secretary and fervent Blairite, Alan Milburn, is planning to mount a leadership bid to topple Gordon Brown in the aftermath of Labour’s likely heavy defeat in the Crewe & Nantwich by-election. I cannot vouch for the accuracy of this but it comes from somebody I trust who has very close links within the party. Clearly something is going on out there and this…
Could the pollsters be understating the Tory margin? The Independent’s pollster, ComRes, have made available overnight the full data from their Crewe & Nantwich poll which is in this morning’s paper and is showing a Conservative lead of 13%. Reproduced above is a table showing responses on the turnout question the certainty of voting rated on a scale of 1 to 10 from those interviewed. The picture is the same as we have seen in many other polls – Tory…
Updated 2145 CreweTV By election voting shares – CON 48%: LAB 35%: LD 12% A ComRes poll taken amongst voters in Crewe and Nantwich for the Independent is showing that the Tories are heading for a 13% lead. This is substantially bigger than the 8% that ICM had in their survey at the weekend for the News of the World. The first details came from Andrew Grice’s blog . What could be critical here is the timing of this latest…