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Ireland votes on the Lisbon Treaty in 17 days’ time

The annual Eurovision extravanganza has just ended, and although Terry Wogan may be calling it a day due to the increasingly “political” nature of the voting, this provides plenty of trading opportunities for punters.

Another possible political aspect of Eurovision that has been mooted is that of the Irish entry Dustin the Turkey, who enjoyed the accolade of being the event’s first non-human entry, but only made it as far as the semi-final of the competition. Might the failure of the popular TV puppet slightly dampen enthusiasm for Europe as the Lisbon Treaty referendum approaches?

A poll this weekend by Red C for the Sunday Business Post shows Yes 41, No 33, with a substantial (but falling) 26% undecided – Yes is up three and No up five since the previous poll. It’s thought that turnout on polling day will be crucial if the government wants to secure the passing of the treaty.

The polls have also confirmed a bounce for Fianna Fáil since “Biffo” took over from Bertie – with FF now enjoying a large 16-point lead over Fine Gael following the leadership change from Ahern to Cowen. Will Cowen’s honeymoon be longer-lasting than Brown’s? He may be helped by the fact that Irish parliaments are much more likely to run the full five years, and thus avoid having to consider a snap election.

On the markets, Paddy Power offer Yes at 2-7 and No at 9-4. There is also a Betfair market, but volumes are thin and prices are currently not as good as the PP quotes. My gut feel is that it will be a narrow win for the Yes camp with about 53% of the vote – what do the Irish experts on PB think?

Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”