Given the dramatic changes we are seeing I thought it might be a good moment to look back to the first Saturday in October when Gordon recorded his famous interview with Andrew Marr. It was this, it will be recalled, that was Downing Street’s way of ending the speculation about an early November 2007 general election and followed a week when the Tories had begun to start their recovery in the polls.

Gordon looks a bit better in the recording compared with what we have seen in the past week. But the moment when it all falls down was when he dismissed the notion that it was the opinion polls that caused him to drop the early election plan.

This sounded so implausible and had echoes in the way he dealt with the 10% tax change moves during the week. Trying to deny something which appears to be so obviously the case just makes you look shifty.

In my betting I have now put more on the spreadbetting markets to become a £100 a seat seller of Labour. This is where you estimate the number of seats the parties will get at the election and then see them traded like stocks and shares. I’ve gone for a Labour sell rather than a Tory buy because I think there is more scope for movement.

I’m at Lords Cricket ground all day watching the First Test Match.

Mike Smithson