Will the PM’s £2.7bn gamble pay off?

In the previous thread we looked at the latest betting on Crewe and Nantwich where the best you can get is 0.21/1 on the Conservative victory. I think that is going to happen but betting at that price – not my normal way of doing things.

I am coming to a view that Gordon Brown has wagered so much on next Thursday that if Labour is defeated by a significant margin then the big political question will be whether he can survive.

For not only has he borrowed a massive amount to fund the tax cut he’s also thrown all his developing policy ideas into his gamble in the so-called “draft Queen’s Speech”. On top of that he has put his personal position on the line following the media blitz.

Let nobody be in any doubt – it is Gordon’s future that is on the line next Thursday. A small defeat would just be about survivable – but what happens if the margin is anything near the 12% that ICM had before their “spiral of silence” adjuster or the 16% that the pollster had on general election voting intention in the constituency?

I am quite taken with the prices you can get on a Brown 2008 exit. Paddy Power has this at 6/1 though they are restricting your stakes somewhat. At William Hill you might be able to get a bigger bet on at their price of 5/1. UPDATE 1645 Hills have slashed the 2008 exit price to 5/2.

These prices offer much better value than is currently on offer on Betfair‘s Brown departure date market.

Mike Smithson