A 24 seat shift to Cameron’s party in just ten days

The spread firm, SportingIndex, has just put up its new general election commons seats spreads following the YouGov poll overnight suggesting that Labour are on just 23% – a massive 26% behind.

When we last looked at this, a week last Tuesday and two days before polling, I posed the question – “Will punters believe in a Tory majority after Thursday?”.

Well they have and the Tory spread has moved from 318-324 seats up to the latest 342-348 seats. So taking the mid-point in the spread the market is suggesting a Tory seat total of 345 seats – or an overall majority of 40.

I think that this is just about the first time ever since spread betting was launched in the UK that gamblers have been prepared to risk money on the Tories getting a workable majority.

Clearly the polling has helped and so has Boris’s victory in London. Market sentiment has now moved to believing that David Cameron will be the next prime minister.

My guess is that the next big event that will affect the markets is Crewe and Nantwich a week on Thursday. if the Tories do, as the national polls certainly suggest, pull off a victory then expect the spreads to move up even further. I think that this is a better way to bet on the by election than the very tight prices that are being quoted on the event itself.

Mike Smithson