Appalling news for Labour from the pollster that got Boris-Ken right

In what is perhaps the most sensational opinion poll for decades the pollster that got the London Mayoral election spot on, YouGov is tonight reporting a 26% lead for the Conservatives.

The shares are CON 49%: LAB 23%: LD 17%

The last survey from the firm had an 18% Tory lead so this is a very big shift upwards.

Clearly Gordon Brown and Labour have had an appalling week and the fact that the Tories can win something big, the London mayoralty, indicates almost certainly that a sea change is taking place.

Before people start knocking YouGov it is worth remembering that in the days after Gordon’s conference speech last September the pollster was recording the biggest Labour leads of any media-commissioned survey.

The big question now is what this will do to the overall political environment.

Clearly the Tories have to take Crewe and Nantwich if this really is the state of public opinion.

Mike Smithson