Unlike 2000 and 2004 Tory supporters are sticking with their candidate

Every Tuesday for the last month or so YouGov have published the detailed data of their latest London mayoral poll. This fleshes out what’s already been made public and provides more information that can be helpful in forming a view of the race.

And what I have looked first for is the number highlighted above – what proportion of those who identifying themselves as Tories are supporting Boris Johnson. This could be critical because he is not going to win if he is not retaining the Tory vote.

At the 2000 and 2004 mayoral elections there was strong evidence that significant numbers of Tories switched to Ken in the mayoral ballot. If there was a hint that that was happening this time then Johnson could be in trouble.

Well the figure above confirms that Johnson is retaining 87% of the Tory vote – a proportion that has hardly moved since the campaign started. He is also picking up one fifth of those who have at sometime told YouGov that the party they identify with most is Labour.

The Tory vote is significant because traditionally it is more likely to turn out out. In my view Johnson is going to do it and current odds seem very attractive.

Last night’s ICM “poll” story: Last night I published and then withdraw a story about what was said to be a new ICM poll on the London battle. This was based on a piece that appeared on the Daily Telegraph website here. The number were actually from a survey the pollster did for the Guardian four weeks ago. I’ve spoken to the firm this morning and they will NOT be carrying out another poll on the mayor.

Radio 5Live discussion on the polls: I will be on the Simon Mayo programme from about 1.40pm

In the betting the money has continued to go on Johnson who is now at 1/2.

Mike Smithson