Is this market manipulation or good information?

As site regulars will know the one act that will lead directly to a permanent ban from our discussion threads is to put forward deliberately false information that could move betting markets.

Last night there was a big move back to Boris in the Mayoral betting after somebody calling themself “Don” posted this :-“I’m going to take my courage in my hands and pass on a tip from a pretty reliable source (nb – ‘pretty’ is somewhere between ‘very’ and ‘fairly’)..Tomorrow morning’s YouGov poll will show that Boris’s lead has increased to 11%. I believe what I’ve been told but it doesn’t really resolve anything because one either has faith in YouGov, in which case it’s in the bag for Boris, or one doesn’t, in which it’s going to be a photo-finish. The info is useful because it may move the market when it starts leaking out. I’m telling you guys because I love this site…..”

One of the great strengths of PB is that we do often get good advance information and I do not want the Dons of this world, if genuine, to feel inhibited. My main problem in this case is that “Don” provided what is clearly a phoney email address which means that I cannot correspond with him. If he could post here with an email that I can verify that would be very helpful. No need for any other information.

From the records he made his first appearance on the site at 6.48pm on April 2nd 2008 with this comment about the ICM mayoral poll which proved to be genuine. There was nothing special about his source – he got it from BBC London’s local news programme.

During the following three weeks he has made about 25 comments from two separate computers all fairly sane and rational. One of them was when he tipped us off about the Ken five children by three partners revelation. There is nothing to suggest, however, from his comment record that he has access to confidential information like that in Comment #26.

So there we are. We should know later in the day whether this is true or not. If Don is right and YouGov is reporting an 11% Boris lead then I will be among many who will be piling into the markets once again.

Latest mayoral price are here.

Mike Smithson