A third poll has Labour slipping back

Just six days after the publication of the Guardian’s April poll showing a big drop in the Tory lead to 5% there another survey from pollster out tonight which has a different picture. The ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph reports the following shares with comparisons on the earlier survey: CON 39% (nc): LAB 29% (-5): LD 20% (+1)

So the big drop off in the Labour share has not moved to the Tories. Whatever this is good news for David Cameron and the trend of growing leads of Labour has now been seen in three polls, from there different pollsters all of which use totally different polling methodologies.

On top of everything that has happened this week the ICM survey is clearly another body blow for Brown. With the exception of that 5% poll earlier in the week the polling trend is pretty bad for Labour and does not form a good basis for Thursday’s elections.

With all eyes on the Mayoral battle there has been little activity of late on the commons seat spread markets. I think that all this will change after Thursday.

Mike Smithson