What will the next YouGov poll show?

The betting markets had this one right yesterday. Late on Saturday morning there was a big move back to Boris in the London Mayoral betting and there was speculation here that someone had got wind of some new polling.

The Ipsos-MORI firm, which was showing 2% leads for Ken in the previous two of its polls to be published, is now reporting in the Observer that the Tory is 2% ahead amongst those certain to vote after the second preferences have been re-allocated. So it’s now Boris 51% (+2): KEN 49% (-2)

Although the change is well within the poll’s margin of error it does mean that all three polling firms covering the race have the Tory ahead albeit by very different margins.

We have not seen the MORI detail yet but my guess is that this might be even more encouraging for the Tory. In both the firm’s February and last poll the proportion saying they were “certain” to vote was 48%. Given that just 34% and 37% bothered to go to the polling stations in the last two contests it’s hard to see, even in such a tight election, the turnout shifting up by a third. My reading is that the fewer the number of Londoners who turn out the better it is for Johnson.

The other big polling news overnight was the latest national YouGov survey for the Sunday Times. This had Cameron’s Conservatives moving to 44% over a 28% share for Labour and 17% share for the Lib Dems. This could put even more pressure on Gordon.

The detailed data for London in previous YouGov polls has proved to be a reliable guide on how Johnson is doing in their Mayoral race surveys.

The mayoral betting prices are here

Having a punt on Gord not surviving. I am now building up a position on Betfair’s general election party leaders market. Knowing what we do about Brown personality I cannot see him fighting a general election that the polls suggest he could lose.

Mike Smithson