Do the findings mean that it’s now curtains for Ken? The odds on Boris Johnson becoming the next Mayor of London have tightened sharply following the publication of a new YouGov putting the Henley MP 12% ahead. The shares are with changes on the last survey a month ago JOHNSON 49% (+5): LIVINGSTONE 37% (-2) : PADDICK 12% (nc). On second preferences YouGov has picked up the same trend that MORI found last month with Boris getting 20% of them…
Why the poll slump when the budget measures were popular? A day on from the dramatic polling news in the Sunday newspapers there’s a must read article in the Independent today by John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, and one of the UK’s leading psephologists. In it he attempts to explain how the fact many of the measures in last week’s budget proved popular squares with Labour’s downward poll movement. One of the surveys, from YouGov had Labour…
Ten more delegates go on his overall total ABC News in the US is leading on the above story about the second delegate battle for Iowa – scene of the very first caucus in the nomination process on January 3rd. According to ABC Obama “saw his delegate lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., grow by 10 on Saturday when Iowa Democrats took the second step in picking national convention delegates..Obama’s gains at Saturday’s county conventions came from successfully wooing Iowa…
The 16% Tory lead poll – the detail Reproduced above is an extract from the detailed data from today’s YouGov poll in the Sunday Times showing the Tories with their best figures for a quarter of a century. The paper is leading on the survey this morning. By any account the figures are sensational and, if repeated at a general election, would see David Cameron returned with a three figure majority. But that could be more than two years away…
Voters give a big “thumbs down” in the first post-budget polls Reports are coming in of two new polls showing big moves to the Tories. YouGov has the party on 43% a massive 16% ahead of Labour. The shares with comparisons on the last YouGov survey at the end of February are: CON 43% (+3): LAB 27% (-6): LD 16% (nc) ICM for tomorrow’s News of the World has Cameron’s party with a lead of 9% – up from just…
The candidate responds to the minister who married him and Michelle There’s been a move to Hillary and away from Obama on the Democratic nomination markets in reaction to the overnight story from the US about his pastor. This looks like it could run and the MSNBC video above is well worth watching. In all these things it usually boils down not to the issue itself but how the candidate deals with it. But there clearly is a danger, highlighted…
The Irish bookie relents and the winners get paid out On Tuesday Peter the Punter (Peter Smith) reported on a battle that he had had with the Irish bookmaker, PaddyPower, over a bet on Mike Huckabee in the GOP caucus in Kansas on February 9th when Mitt Romney was priced as the hot favourite to take the state. It will be recalled that the first indication here of a possible upset came at 8.11pm (GMT) with Jfsl posting – “Fox…
Has Labour Lost Its Core Working Class Supporters? It has become fashionable to argue that Labour has alienated its core working class supporters, in favour of middle income supporters in marginal constituencies. A good example of this was written by Seamus Milne in yesterday’s Guardian , and plenty of other left-wing commentators, such as Polly Toynbee, Roy Hattersley, and Dagenham MP, John Cruddas, make the same point. Usually, the argument is that Labour’s core supporters have lost out economically, although…