New poll suggests that Cameron is heading for a 100 seat majority

The above graphic, reproduced from the seat calculator on Anthony Wells’s UK Polling Report site, shows what happens when you key in the projected vote shares from today’s March YouGov survey for the Daily Telegraph.

The survey paints the same broad picture that we’ve seen in all the post-budget polls – very bad news for Labour.

When nearly a fortnight ago poll by the firm for the Sunday Times had Labour on 27% trailing a massive sixteen points behind the Tories there was a widespread assumption that this was a rogue or an outlier. This view changed a couple of days later when ICM in the Guardian put Cameron’s party on 42% with a thirteen point lead on Labour.

Today in the first post-Easter poll there has been a small improvement for Brown’s party but they are still below 30% and the Tories are maintaining their 43% share. These are the figures with comparisons on the last survey from the firm: CON 43% (nc): LAB 29% (+2): LD 17% (+1)

To YouGov’s regular forced choice question of whether respondents would prefer a Labour government under Brown or a Tory one under Cameron the split was 47% – 35% in the Tories favour. This is the highest level it has been for Cameron.

All of this adds credence to the view that there has been step change in public opinion during March. Something happened with the budget to affect the overall view of Labour.

Unlike with the Sunday Times which permits the simultaneous publication of the detailed data alongside the poll itself we will probably have to wait until after the weekend before we see elements like the regional spreads and age distributions. What could be central here is the break down of the London data which might give a further pointer to the Mayoral election – less than four weeks off.

The Telegraph is leading on the poll which could influence punters on the commons seat spread markets. The overnight figures from Sporting Index show a massive variation from the Anthony Wells projections. The firm has CON 308-314: LAB 262-268: LD 44-47 seats. My guess is that there will be a movement upwards in the Tory spread – a few notches closer to the 325 level which in a general election would see Cameron securing a majority.

Other General Election betting is here.

Mike Smithson