..or is PBC’s 50/1 shot now just too strong? Three more primaries and three more emphatic victories for Barack Obama – the black senator from Illinois who was tipped here on May 27th 2005 when the odds on him winning the presidency were 50/1. He was tipped here again on October 23rd 2006 when the price had moved to 33/1. To my mind the three Potomac primaries overnight have been the most spectacular so far with Obama eating into almost…
While we wait for the results – check out this… One of the most intriguing pieces that I’ve read in recent days has been this article from the Agitator blog suggesting that Bill Clinton is trying to stop Hillary becoming president. The post opens with a conversation the writer had with an activist about Bill Clinton’s comments about Jesse Jackson in the aftermath of the South Carolina primary. This act, more than just about anything else, has alienated the African…
Could there be a glimmer of hope in one of the results? The next stage of the seemingly never-ending quest to find the nominees for November’s presidential election moves to Washington DC tonight and to the two neighbouring states – Maryland and Virginia. The success of Mike Huckabee at the weekend has given life to the only serious contender fighting John McCain for the GOP crown. He won two contests on Saturday and there’s a big argument still going on…
In reality are pledged delegates the only ones that matter? With neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama looking as though they will be able to secure a nomination-winning total of delegates in the remaining primaries an interesting debate is developing over the so called super-delegates. For if they chose to over-ride the preferences of ordinary voters as expressed through the primary and caucus process then, surely, they would be moving into very dangerous territory. I was particularly struck by this…
Is Ken being ousted the best bet around at the moment? Cards on the table straight-away: quite simply I believe that the 1.84/1 that’s available on Boris Johnson to win the London Mayoralty is by far the best value political bet that’s currently available. Last October I pocketed £3,400 on Gordon’s general election U-turn and in the coming eleven weeks I’ll be investing at least half of that on Boris – when the prices are right. As Sean Fear observed…
Confidence erodes after defeats and her campaign manager going The chart shows the changing views of the contenders for the Democratic crown over seven says which has seen “Super Tuesday“, “Significant Saturday” and Sunday’s caucuses in Maine. The betting prices are reflected as implied probabilities and, as can be seen, there’s been a further big drift in Hillary’s price with a corresponding tightening in Obama’s position. On the Betfair exchange the Obama odds are now 0.45/1 with Hillary out at…
The above is the latest (2312 GMT) from Google maps showing how the Maine caucuses are going. The blue markers are for Obama the red ones for Hillary. In the betting the Iowa Electronic Markets – where political futures are bought and sold like stocks and shares – now has Hillary down to 32%. My view is that this is quite a significant result particularly as it borders on New Hampshire where Hillary had a spectacular victory just a month…
This evening the results from the Maine caucuses will be coming out in the next stage of the 2008 White House race. In the betting Obama has eased a touch. Mike Smithson