My system for making money from the Democratic race

If you’ve got ten minutes then the above sequence from MSNBC is well worth viewing. It’s a good piece of analysis of what went wrong with the polls and the media hype in the build up to Super Tuesday and re-affirms the little betting system that I’ve been following.

If the media narrative is with Hillary and her betting price moves into the odds-on zone then back Barack. If the media is going with Obama and he become odds-on then switch your money to Clinton.

This race has got so long to go and there are so many uncertainties that it is hard to see either of the contenders becoming the permanent front-runner. Thus on Wednesday morning it was all Clinton and she became a tight favourite. Then as news of the delegate count and her campaign money worries filtered out then the betting switched to Obama.

I’m still “all green” on Betfair but have switched this afternoon so I make most if Hillary wins. On the spread markets I’ve closed my Hillary sell positions and have just transferred £582 to my current account. With the latter form of betting you can close down your position and immediately pocket the profits.

The pendulum is moving so often between them that this approach seems to be working and relatively safe.

Betting Exchange and traditional bookie prices are here. Sporting Index which has a good spread market is here.

Mike Smithson