…and the Hain affair does not seem to have hurt Labour

The first poll to be carried out after the Hain resignation, by ComRes for the Independent, is showing that the Tory lead is down three points to 8%. The figures are with changes on December – CON 38%(-3): LAB 30%(nc): LD 17%(+1).

So the trends we have seen with ICM and YouGov have continued with the pollster that has been recording the best Tory figures – the Tory share is down, the Lib Dems are up and Labour is staying about the same.

In recent weeks the Tories have found it hard getting onto the new agenda with all the focus being on the US elections, the economy or Labour’s problems with its donors. There’s hardly been a big Tory headline in weeks – excluding Derek Conway.

At these levels the Anthony Wells seat predictor indicates a post general election commons consisting CON 312: LAB 265: LD 43: OTH 30 seats – so Cameron would be thirteen short of an overall majority.

My betting: After the YouGov and ICM polls at the weekend I switched from being a buyer of Tory seats on the spread markets to being a seller at an average of 301.

Mike Smithson