How will Kennedy’s endorsement affect the race?

The excellent US Politico site is reporting that a major battle has been going on between the Obama and Clinton camps over plans by Ted Kennedy to appear on a platform with Barack Obama today and give his blessing to the Illinois senator in the fight for the Democratic nomination.

The importance of the move can be measured by the efforts that the Clinton campaign has made to try to stop Kennedy making such a move. There have been personal pleas from the ex–president himself as well as “a flood of phone calls to Kennedy from sources ranging from union chiefs to his Massachusetts constituents.”

ABC News has been characterising this as “the clash of Dynasties – giving this a personal edge that will ensure further coverage for the second favourite as the campaign goes into its next stage.

Assessing the impact Politico notes – “The embrace provides a dramatic rocket for Obama to ride into the frantic, nationwide campaigning ahead of the spate of Super Tuesday primaries on Feb. 5, the biggest day for nominating contests in U.S. history. Caroline Kennedy, the senator’s niece and the daughter of President John F. Kennedy, will also appear at the rally, the sources said. Democrats said the endorsement will help Obama with traditional Democratic groups where Clinton has been strong — union households, Hispanics and downscale workers.”

In the betting the Obama price has tightened a touch to 1.88/1 while Clinton has move a notch to 0.53/1. So a winning £100 bet on the President’s spouse would have produced a £45 profit last week – today that stands at £53.

Personally I find this a very difficult betting call to make. I want Obama to win but I am only too conscious of the danger of letting my own desires affect my judgement. Sporting Index now have a spread market on the election which is where some of my money is going. I think the firm is over-valuing Hillary and sell price seems the best bet about.

Judging by the published amounts being traded on Betfair almost all the activity in political markets at the moment is focussed on the US and my guess is that will continue to be the case – certainly until the aftermath of Super Tuesday.

Mike Smithson