It’s going to be hard for Hillary to get back into this

It was on May 27th 2005 that I first suggested on the site that the then relatively unknown junior senator from Illinois was a good bet for the 2008 White House Race. At the time you could have got 50/1 on him going all the way and I know that many site visitors did place bets. Those odds have shrunk to 7/2 this morning after his victory in Iowa – the first state to decide on the candidates. That price looks great value.

• The margin of more than 8% that pushed Hillary Clinton into third place was greater than the polls were predicting and was particularly significant because of the independent voters and the numbers of young voters who turned out last night to support Obama at the the caucus meetings across the state.

Obama now goes into the New Hampshire primary with all the momentum on his side and he could even by the betting favourite by the weekend to get the nomination. The latest Betfair price has him at 1.3/1 with Hillary still odds-on at 0.83/1.

A lot now depends on how the US media reports the outcome and how the rest of the nation will view a state which is 95% white giving so much backing to a black challenger. His colour, my guess, will become less and less of an issue. I’ve stepped up my betting on him.

Mike Huckabee’s emphatic victory in the GOP race could surely be the death-knell of Mitt Romney’s campaign and makes next Tuesday’s clash in New Hampshire even more interesting. Without sounding too self-congratulatory I suggested here in August that he was worth betting on for the nomination when the was 60/1.

• There has been a tendency amongst many observers to write Huckabee off – but he is hugely dangerous to the more well-established contenders. His victory speech in Iowa proved to me that he is head and shoulders above the others when it comes to coming over well in the media. This former preacher-man might continue to surprise us.

What was common to both parties in Iowa was that the youngest candidate won in each case and that the victories went to the strongest and most able communicators. In the TV age you have to make an impact and both Obama and Huckabee can be very effective.

Mike Smithson