The Lib Dem’s Paddick is down at just 7%

A new poll by YouGov for for ITV’s London Tonight puts Ken on 45 per cent, just one point above Boris with the Lib-Dem candidate Brian Paddick trailing on seven per cent in what looks set to be the biggest domestic battle during 2008.

If the Tories managed to unseat Livingston it would be a major political upset and a big set-back for Brown. It will no doubt be recalled that Gordon strongly opposed Ken’s return to the Labour party ahead of the 2004 race. He won first in 2000 as an independent beating the official Labour candidate, Frank Dobson, into a poor third place.

The election involves millions of Londoners in the largest single ballot anywhere within the UK political system.

• In many ways the process favours the Tories because turnout levels in the outer boroughs where they have most support are likely to be much higher than in the inner traditional Labour areas

All electors have two choices and a key element will be where the second preferences go. The election is held on the same day as that for the London Assembly where the Greens have done well in the past.

Johnson clearly has very high name recognition – the big question mark is whether his opponents can raise doubts about his seriousness as Brian Paddick sought to do earlier in the week.

The poll margin of just one percent is not reflected in the betting where Ken is the the 0.54/1 favourite with Boris on 1.52/1. Johnson would now seem to be the value bet.

Tomorrow on PBC I am flying to Dublin for a meeting tomorrow and Paul Maggs will once again be acting as stand-in editor.

Mike Smithson