Who’ll be most relieved that it’s Nick?

Wow – what a close margin? Who could have predicted that?

Only five weeks ago I entered into a wager with Observer for £500 at even money that Huhne would get more than the 42% that he achieved in 2006. Well that bet is won. (Observer – I do appreciate that we need to find a way for you to pay me without you revealing your identity).

Even when I entered into that bet I did not envisage that the outcome was going to be that close. I thought that it would be closer to the YouGov 56-44% poll of a fortnight ago.

But what does this mean now for the big fight between Gord and Dave? On the face of it the Tories, who have taken maybe a quarter of the support that the Lib Dems got in 2005, could be most at risk.

But Labour is the party that is finding it hard to hold onto its share at the moment and might be most vulnerable.

The nightmare for the Lib Dems, of course, is that it doesn’t make much difference.

Mike Smithson