Are we witnessing a dramatic change of fortunes for Clinton?

There’s little doubt that one of the most spectacular changes of fortune ever in UK politics was the dramatic move against Gordon Brown in the first week in October. From a situation where a big general election victory looked certain Brown suddenly started to look like a loser and since then it has got progressively worse.

The question for those betting on the 2008 White House Race is whether the same is currently happening to Hillary Clinton. Are we seeing a rapid change of fortune in the fight for the Democratic nomination?

Certainly it has been a dreadful week for the Clinton team. Every little thing seems to be going wrong. Husband Bill said publicly that he had opposed Iraq – he hadn’t; claims about the role Hillary played in running America from 1992-2000 have started to unravel; and there’s been the ongoing saga of an apparent attempt to smear Obama by raising his drug-taking youthful indiscretions.

All this has been picked up by the polls and it’s starting to look as though Hillary will struggle in the first round of states to vote on who should get the nomination.

What Brown and Clinton have in common is that they face younger more media-friendly opponents and as the polls have moved sharply against them tensions within their teams are coming to the surface.

Both have benefited enormously from the appearance of inevitability about their campaigns – elements which have now started to drain away. And once the inevitable ceases to appear inevitable then anything can happen.

It’s now very easy to envisage someone other than Hillary heading her party’s ticket next November and it’s starting to look as though Brown might be in danger too. Could he be replaced as Labour MPs start to panic about retaining their jobs as the possibility of a Tory overall majority comes into the frame?

UK and US political betting prices can be found here.

Mike Smithson