How “certainty to vote” is driving the polls

The above table has been reproduced from the full data set from yesterday’s ICM survey for the News of the World which showed that Labour was 11% behind. This highlights how those surveyed responded when asked how likely, on a scale of 1-10, it was that they would vote.

The columns show how supporters of the various parties responded and also included is a breakdown based on what people said they did at the last election. Clearly for all parties those who voted last time are more likely to do so at the next election.

A trend that is impacting on the headline figures is that the gap between the parties is wider than it was. What could be encouraging for Labour, as Nick Palmer regularly points out here, is that there is a body of voters who have not switched parties – their desire to vote might be enhanced in the frenzy of an election campaign when there is a real prospect of Labour losing power.

Mike Smithson