Does that sound like a value bet?

With the pressure on Gord to call a referendum the EU Treaty likely to intensify this week the bookmaker, Victor Chandler, is now accepting bets on whether or not he will go back on his refusal.

The firm have priced up a referendum happening before the end of next year at 9/2. It is 1/8 that the UK ratifies the treaty without it being put to a public vote.

My guess is that even at 9/2 this is not a good bet. Gord has simply gone too far in his opposition to such a move that he would look so weak if he did give in.

His strategy seems to be to brazen it out for a few months and seek to bore everyone to death.

The charges of him “bottling” the general election decision really hurt and he’ s not going to open himself up to such attacks again.

Comments I know that for many this is an emotional subject on which feelings can run high. But please confine your observations to whether you think Gord will do it or not and the overall political impact of the move.

People making personal attacks, which in my view go over the top, will be “sin-binned” for a period – meaning that your contributions won’t get published immediately.

After a day or so you will be allowed back on the strict understanding that further unacceptable contributions might lead to a permanent ban.

There will be less of my previous practice of “having a quiet word”.

Mike Smithson