Best Conservative score since 1992 with ICM

An ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph has the Conservatives on 43, Labour on 36, and the Lib Dems on 14. Changes on the previous ICM poll are +5, -2, -2, representing a swing of 3.5% to the Tories.

However, Brown still leads Cameron 52-32 on the strongest leader question, while Labour leads by 47-36 on the economy. Other findings are that 66 per cent of those surveyed want a referendum on the EU Treaty, while 21 per cent did not, and there was a 41-41 tie over whether Brown was right or wrong to call off the election. There’s also a BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday giving a 41-37 lead to the Conservatives.

There’s more uncomfortable news for No 10 as it’s been reported that Blair is unhappy with the direction that Brown is taking the party in, and also that Byers, Milburn, and Clarke are said to be “planning to embark on a blitz of policy speeches to ensure that Brown does not hand the initiative to David Cameron”.

Elsewhere, the Observer’s Andrew Rawnsley considers the lessons that Brown needs to learn, while Matthew D’Ancona in the Telegraph argues that the problem is deeper than Gordon, and the Sunday Times wonders whether Brown can “get his bounce back”.

Choppy waters for the Lib Dems too, as the Independent reports that senior MPs have given Campbell six months to ‘shape up or ship out’ , with one senior figure describing Ming as “past the point of no return”, and Simon Hughes is expected to call today for the leader to raise his game.

Finally, the major breaking international news is that John Howard has called the Australian election for Saturday 24th November.

Behaviour & Language on the site

I’ve had to issue a “yellow card” in someone’s comment last night after they were abusive to a fellow poster. Ahead of Mike’s return later this week, can I please ask all posters, whatever your political views, to treat other site users with courtesy and respect? There are plenty of other sites where you can slag other people off and use bad language to your heart’s content. Many thanks for your co-operation.

Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”

Guest Editor

Mike Smithson returns full time on 18th October

Paul Maggs runs The Election Game – click on the logo to email for more information.