But those 40% plus Tory shares should be worrying

Too often, I think, those with a passion for following the fortunes of our great parties seem to expect instant reactions from the polls to the events they see daily in the papers and on their TV screens.

So Brown has been having a torrid few days and yet Labour is at 38% in the latest Mori poll trailing by just 3%. That could have been a lot worse and I think it is explained by two factors: Gordon Brown is not Tony Blair which remains an enormous plus as Labour supporters continue to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Secondly big changes in opinion do take time. Just look at how it took Brown several weeks for Labour’s position to increase after the June 27th handover.

So we will really need to wait for a month or so to get the true measure of how the changes in the political scene are being received.

The one thing that Labour should be concerned about is the fact that Cameron’s Tories seem to have broken through the 40% ceiling in the last two polls from different firms. It’s going to be mighty hard maintaining a Labour majority with the Tory share at these levels.

In the betting the collapse in Lib Dem polling support does not seem to have affected the prices that much. The Spreadfair latest is 43.6 – 47.9 seats at the next general election.

Mike Smithson