ICM poll gives Tories 6% lead in 50 marginals
Just broadcast on BBC News 24. No further details at the moment.
UPDATE – this is how it is being reported on the paper’s website:-
GORDON Brown will LOSE his majority and be forced to battle for control of a hung parliament if he decides to call a snap General Election according to an exclusive poll in tomorrow’s News of the World.The ICM poll of the key marginal constituencies that will decide whether he stays in power reveals he will lose almost 50 seats.
This is the first poll that delves deep into these key seats – and it shows the Conservatives are poised to make sweeping gains – unseating 49 Labour MPs including Home Secretary Jacqui Smith and a host of other Ministers.
The poll gives the Conservatives a 6% lead over Labour in the marginals (44% versus 38%) – a substantially higher figure than recent national polls, which showed the Tories level or close behind.
That result would give Labour approximately 306 seats, with the Conservatives behind on 246. It is not possible to predict how the other parties would stand.
The poll confirms that turn-out would be a problem for Labour. When asked, 59% of Labour voters said they were certain to vote, compared to 71% of Conservatives.
The poll has been taken in the same seats being studied by Prime Minister Gordon Brown as he struggles to decide whether to call an election this week.
Pollsters ICM quizzed voters in the 83 key battlegrounds where Labour and the Tories are fighting most closely for control AFTER David Cameron’s closing speech at the Tory conference in Blackpool.