Was it the IHT changes or the speech that prompted the Tory bounce?

There’s been a lot of commentary about what prompted the Tory polling surge with Labour saying it was the inheritance tax proposals that were the driving force. This appears to be just spin – and is not supported by the detailed data.

The above is from yesterday’s Populus poll in the Times and records how voting intentions changed between those questioned before Cameron’s speech on Wednesday afternoon and those who were surveyed afterwards.

As can be seen with the “before” group Labour had a 5% margin – amongst the “after” group Labour’s lead was down to just 1%. What is particularly marked between the two segments is the Lib Dem vote – up from 12% to 17%, most of which was at the expense of Labour.

Health warning: These are, of course, sub-sets and involve very small numbers but there does seem to be a broad trend.

Mike Smithson