How will the post conference polls look?

Yesterday’s publication by Mori of a poll taken in the immediate aftermath of Brown’s conference speech is a timely reminder of the polling power of the saturation media coverage that such an event provides.

That survey had Labour 13% ahead – nearly double the 7% lead that the same pollster had found a couple of days later.

The instant poll by YouGov after Brown’s speech came up with an 11% margin though that was sustained in the Telegraph three days afterwards.

So what can we expect from this evening’s YouGov poll on Channel 4 news? How much of that 11% margin will the Tories have clawed back and how are we to judge it?

So much is dependent on the next few polls – not just the general election decision but whether Blackpool has provided the base for a Tory recovery. The media narrative is with Cameron at the moment. Good polls will sustain it – bad polls could kill it dead.

Mike Smithson