The Times pollster reports a margin of just 3%

The second poll of the night, just out, is from Populus for the Times and has these figures compared with the last survey at the weekend – CON 36% (+5): LAB 39% (-2): LD 15% (-2).

This and ICM, expected later, are probably the most significant survey of the nights because they do weight by past vote and does weight by the likelihood to vote.

A margin of 3% starts to look very tight particularly as the experience of previous elections is that Labour is likely to shed a part of its vote to the Lib Dems during a campaign.

Assuming ICM is in the same territory then an early election must, surely be off.

Mike Smithson