Do these make the general election decision even harder?

Having worked for BBC national news for nearly a decade and a half and having been closely involved in politics since I cannot remember a Friday morning when a batch of local councils by elections has made the headlines. The only times the news editors have taken notice of these contests in the past has been when the BNP or similar parties has made progress.

Maybe it was the revelation at the weekend that Gordon Brown is an avid follower of these contests has put them up the political agenda?

Clearly with a possible general election much in mind every bit of evidence that might indicate how opinion is moving will be scrutinised to the nth degree.

The BBC is quoting an analysis that suggests that in national terms last nights results represent a projected 6.2% lead. I’m always very doubtful about such numbers because local elections are just that – local – and I am far from convinced that it is possible to make that sort of projection.

The “Guardian poll” reported in the previous article turned out to be the paper listing as “latest polling results” last weekend’s ICM survey for the Sunday Mirror which had Labour 6% ahead.

Mike Smithson