What margin would trigger a visit to see the Queen?

For all the bravado, leaking, teasing and wind-ups Gord is not going to risk his premiership on the basis of current polling evidence. What he needs to see is how the public react after they’ve been exposed to the Tories and, in particular, to the big speech by David Cameron.

For much of the poll movement to Labour has been driven by the almost total news blackout from the Tories during Brown’s return from holiday, the Lib Dems conference and then, this week, Labour in Bournemouth.

What will be at the back of their minds is the extent of damage to the Tories that September has caused – for it’s only four weeks ago that YouGov’s Labour leader dropped a staggering seven points in a fortnight and ComRes was showing the two parties neck and neck.

No doubt Gord will have plans to distract attention from the coverage of Cameron’s speech but he needs to see how the public react. If the polls move back to the August levels then it will, surely, be too risky.

If however the conventional pollsters, ICM and Populus in particular, are reporting margins of 6-7 points or more then I believe there’s a good chance that Gord will chance it.

One thing’s for sure – next week is going to be one of the biggest weeks in British politics for a long long time.

Mike Smithson