politicalbetting.com

Argentina may be set for female President Current Argentine President Néstor Kirchner has announced that he will not be seeking re-election in October’s poll – but his wife Cristina Fernández de Kirchner will be standing instead, and polls currently give her 45% of the vote, over 30 points clear of her nearest challenger. Argentina has a slightly complicated two-ballot system for its presidential election, not exactly like the systems used in France, Russia, or Brazil. Comparisons may be drawn with…

Read More Read More

Do Labour need to do more than just hold on? By an accident of timing the fieldwork for both ICM’s monthly poll for the Guardian and the Communicate Research survey for the Independent is due to start a week tomorrow when, no doubt, the results of the Sedgefield and Ealing Southall by elections will be dominating the news. So with its new leader being in office for little more than a fortnight Labour desperately needs to keep up the momentum…

Read More Read More

Please help to keep the site server running smoothly by continuing today’s discussion here. A couple of international snippets that may be of interest: an article from Bloomberg on McCain’s woes, who looks completely out of it now – and when is Thompson going to formally declare? and news that former French PM de Villepin faces investigation over the Clearstream affair (a bid to discredit Sarkozy) – do the French experts on pb.com think that Chirac will ever face prosecution…

Read More Read More

Can Brown improve on last week? Will Cameron look the better of the big two leaders again? Can Ming come up with another “zinger”? This is the live comments thread for PMQs. Live streaming is available from the following: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/bbc_parliament/default.stm Paul Maggs “Double Carpet” Guest Editor Mike Smithson returns on 16th July Paul Maggs runs The Election Game – click on the logo to email for more info.

Can Gordon improve on last week? The highlight of today in politics is likely to be the second Prime Minister’s Questions with Brown at the despatch box, with the key question being whether or not Gordon can improve on a shaky start at his first outing. Also today the PM is expected to outline his draft parliamentary agenda to the House, although this is not expected to include a commitment to AV, despite the lively debate on pb.com. Elsewhere, there’s…

Read More Read More

Please help to ease the load on the site server by continuing today’s discussion on AV, Southall, and other topics here. Many thanks. Paul Maggs “Double Carpet” Guest Editor Mike Smithson returns on 16th July

A guest article by Rod Crosby AV – Labour’s Lock on Power? Since the election of David Cameron as Conservative leader the polls have consistently shown a Hung Parliament as the most likely result of the next Election. Apart from the obvious practical difficulties that would follow, such an outcome would arise amid novel and explosive circumstances. • An unelected (and unselected) Prime Minister has lost his inherited parliamentary majority at his first electoral test. • The Conservatives are ahead…

Read More Read More

After two months of confusion, Labour & Plaid sign a deal It’s now over two months since the Welsh Assembly elections, but finally a majority coalition government has been put together that sees the Welsh Nationalists in power at Cardiff for the first time, although Cabinet formation has been delayed by Rhodri Morgan’s visit to hospital. It’s not uncommon for governments in some European countries to take 2-3 months to put together, and Wales did a fair impression of Austria…

Read More Read More