Can Gordon risk his poll leads falling off?

Whenever the subject of an early election, perhaps as soon as October, is mentioned people dismiss the idea because of Gordon’s character. The man, they argue, is not a risk taker and why should he chance everything on an early poll.

Fine. But is waiting the risky strategy? As we’ve seen with Cameron and the Tories the opinion polls can move very fast and the longer an election is delayed the greater the chance of something happening that turns the whole political situation round.

The argument for moving quickly while the Tories are in apparent turmoil must be very tempting. Poll leads of 6-7% may not survive much beyond the summer and better to strike while there’s still the novelty of him not being Tony Blair and the media continue their uncritical coverage. Honeymoons, alas, do come to an end.

My general election date strategy looks to produce big profits on a 2007 election; quite good profits with a 2008 one; the possibility of a loss if there’s a late 2009 election and a nice profit if it goes on until 2010.

I’ve sold “Gordon Brown weeks” on the Cantor Spreadfair market at 85.5. I’ve combined this with a covering bet at 7/1 with Ladbrokes on a 2010 election. The spread bet keeps me in profit on anything upto the third week of March 2009. I then have a period of risk until 2010 when my Ladbrokes 7/1 comes in.

I’ve been quite taken by the argument that it will be either early or late.

Mike Smithson