Is everybody taking Blair’s ex-seat for granted?

While all the attention has been on Ealing Southall could Tony Blair’s former seat at Sedgefield be the election that causes the biggest surprise tomorrow?

With a Labour share in 2005 at more than 58 percent this surely should be a certainty. But therein could lie the ingredients for a shock.

For it might be hard to motivate the Labour supporters to go out and vote. At the same time the impression is that the Lib Dems have managed to put the squeeze on the Tory vote and are presenting themselves as the only way of beating Labour.

There is also a long history of partes being punished for needless by elections which have been caused by the sitting MP resigning.

Ming’s party has done this so often even when it appears that there’s a mountain to climb. One factor that might help is what happens to the anti-Iraq war candidate’s vote who last time managed to get into double figures.

I’ve got a small bet on the Lib Dems at 33/1 and also £200 at 6/5 that Labour’s vote share will be less than they got last time.

Mike Smithson