But will the party’s “odds-on jinx” continue?

The chart shows the best betting odds for the Ealing Southall by election, expressed as an implied probability of victory, over the weekend.

So if the markets have got this right then Gordon will survive his first serious electoral test. The main oddity is that I cannot recall a by election ever where the price on the third favourite was so tight.

But in the last two by elections where Labour went into polling day as an odds on favourite the party came out a loser. Will Southall follow Dunfermline and Gwent?

The Gwent result was even in the face of an opinion poll showing that Labour had a huge lead in what was Nye Bevan’s old seat and its biggest stronghold in Wales.

Mike Smithson