Why my money remains on Labour for the general election A good piece by Daniel Finkelstein in the Times this morning sets out lucidly something I have been planing to touch on for a week and which will almost certainly decide the next election. For is the Tory party capable of changing itself so it can become electable again? For while the leadership has made big steps in evolving the way Tories present themselves will the party be able to…
In a big polling turnaround in the race for the White House the black senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, has now edged past Hillary Clinton in a poll on the Democratic nomination. This is only the second time that Obama has enjoyed such a poll lead. In the survey Obama is ahead of Clinton by a single percentage point, 30%-29%, if the contest includes former vice president turned Oscar winner, Al Gore. However if Gore is not there the poll…
The public, but not Tories, support Dave’s grammar school stance The only movement in the June survey by Populus for the Times is a one point decrease in the Tory share bringing the lead over Labour down to just 3%. The shares with changes on last month are: CON 36%(-1): LAB 33% (nc): LD 17% (nc). The fieldwork took place over the weekend and the Tories will probably be relieved that they’ve survived almost intact. Labour might have been hoping…
Who’ll benefit from a very low turnout? Looking at the detail from yesterday’s YouGov poll of Labour and TU members on the deputy leadership it’s clear that turnout is going to be absolutely critical. If Brown had not got his coronation there would have been a mass ballot to decide the next prime minister going on at the same time and the proportion voting would have been enormous. But that’s not happening and the election is getting very little media…
Can the actor who’s played the part of President get the nomination? The chart shows how punters on the Betfair market on the Republican nominee for next year’s White House have seen the past month. The former mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani, who made his name after September 11 is still favourite but the price has started to ease. The market has moved early front-runner who lost out to George Bush in 2000, John McCain who has now drifted…
Is the Cameron bike back on the road? Two threads this morning with the publication of two key polls – one from ICM on national voting intention and a YouGov survey of Labour and TU members ahead of the deputy leadership election. After a period of solid good media coverage for Labour and two weeks of public infighting amongst the Tories over the grammar school row the ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph this morning shows a huge boost for…
This survey, in the Sunday Times today, clearly is a big boost for the education secretary, Alan Johnson, who will surely now move into the favourite slot. My only observation is that the poll closed on May 29th before the big Newsnight debate and is a bit old. Johnson will surely move in the betting. Mike Smithson
Has the past fortnight underlined the challenge for Brown and Cameron? The mathematics of the next general election are straightforward – there are more votes to be gained by appealing to the centre ground in British politics than anywhere else. The Tories need to be winning back the voters who moved to the Lib Dems and Labour during the 1990s. The objectives for Brown’s party, meanwhile, are to get back the 6-7% of the national vote share that moved to…