Gordon gets his predicted bounce at last

There are reports of two polls for tomorrow’s papers showing Labour leads with the ICM survey for the Guardian having a the party at 39% against the Tories on 35%.

I’ll report more as soon as there is news.

UPDATE 2130: The actual shares in the polls are changes on the previous poll from the pollster are:

ICM (in the Guardian) CON 35% (-2): LAB 39% (+7): LD 18% (-3)

YouGov (in the Telegraph) CON 35% (-2): LAB 38% (+3): LD 15% (+1)

There can be no doubt that these are very good figures for Labour but it would have been surprising if they had been anything else. The way the transition has been so orderly without any problems and the huge, largely positive, media attention over the past weeks should have given Labour this massive shot in the arm.

Will it be sustained? Who knows? But this evening I entered the “length of Gordon’s first term” spread market and sold at 85.5 weeks. The better Labour poll the more people will start talking about an earlier election and the lower this number will go.

Mike Smithson