Brown’s party boosted by big increase in intention to vote

News of the final poll for May is just out and shows a big move to Labour. The headline figures from the Ipsos-Mori poll are with changes on last month CON 37% (-1): LAB 35% (+4): LD 18% (-2).

Like all Ipsos-Mori polls the figures shown are based on those who say they are “certain to vote” and given what has happened with other pollsters it had been expected that Labour would do well. The 35% share must be particuarly pleasing.

Overall the moves reported today are in direct line with the other recent polls.

The Tories will feel reasonably comfortably about being within 1% of their April predicted share

Labour will be delighted by the fact that supporters are saying that they are more likely to turn out thus boosting the figures

The Lib Dems will be disappointed that yet another surveys has them on the decline

Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 17-22 May 2007 and involved a sample of 1,999 people. Because of timing fieldwork was finalised before the recent YouGov and Communicate Research polls.

Given the prolonged period of positive media coverage for the party since the week after the May elections then the finding are not surprising. The question is can Labour keep it up?

Mike Smithson