Should we be betting on a 2007 election on Betfair’s new market?

Is it worth betting on a 2007 general election on the new date market that’s just been opened on Betfair?

You have to select in six month bands going through to January 1st 2010. There’s little money on offer at the moment but this will build up as the market becomes known.

What are the chances that the author of the new book on Courage, Gordon Brown will take the chance and go for a new mandate that would guarantee him a full five year term?

Looking at the way the polls have move since Tony confirmed he was going then Gordon should surely take the possibility seriously.

Things are going well for Labour and the chances of a post-Blair media honeymoon must be quite strong.

The great thing is the party could still retain an overall majority even if the party was 2 per cent behind on the national vote. The Tories, by contrast. probably need a vote margin of 10 per cent so there’s a lot of margin wiggle room.

Whatever the new Betfair market is going to be fun to play in the lead up to the next election. I don’t think Brown will do it – a decision that he could regret. My money, when the prices are right, will be on Gordon going in 2010.

Mike Smithson