Brown’s party moves up four points and more gloomy news for Ming

A two thread day on PBC with news of the new poll here and the betting reaction to the Newsnight Deputy Leader hustings below.

The May Communicate Research poll for the Independent shows a big boost for Labour this morning up four points from the 27% share that the pollster recorded in May. These are the figures with changes from last month: CON 35% (-1): LAB 31% (+4): LD 19% (-3).

This is very much in line with other recent surveys and shows that much of Labour’s improvement is coming from the Lib Dem party which has found it hard getting its voice heard in the current political atmosphere.

The main technical observation about the poll is over the timing. Normally CR mount their surveys over weekends and the latest might have coincided with the bank holiday and the half term break. There is a long history of quirky results coming out of bank holiday polls and both ICM and Populus make great efforts to avoid them.

Tory chiefs will be pleased that the grammar row does not seem to have had much impact on its share in spite of how the Indy itself is trying to spin it this morning. Unlike last weekend’s YouGov survey the CR numbers taken intro account how likely it is that respondents will vote and the responses play a key part in its ratings.

The big question now is whether Labour’s improvement will be further extended when Gordon finally takes up residence at Number 10. The party has enjoyed a good period of positive media coverage and will be hoping that the novelty of a new leader with a series of policy announcements will reinforce the progress that has been made.

Mike Smithson