ICM and YouGov report on the damage of the pension row Two polls by YouGov and ICM that will appear tomorrow in Rupert Murdoch’s Sunday papers, the News of the World and the Sunday Times show the damage to Gordon Brown’s reputation that the row over the 1997 pension changes has caused. Reports of what’s in the papers are just emerging but these seem to be the main highlights:- GB “Good or bad chancellor?” 52% of those surveyed by YouGov…
Does David Cameron’s appeal stop at Offa’s Dyke? Lots of excitement seems to have been generated over last night’s NOP poll on the Welsh Assembly elections – just under four weeks away. For the figures suggesting that the Tories could end in second place and become the main opposition party within the Assembly is being seen in some quarters as big news. But is this such a major development? Just looking at the numbers and comparisons with what happened four…
IG Index have just called to say that because of the holiday weekend there will be no BrandIndex polling tomorrow so that this week’s market will close at 4pm today. The market will not operate, either, next week but will resume the week after. This means that this week’s figures will be based on four days polling and not five which could dilute any-pro-Blair Iran effect. Mike Smithson
Who’ll have most for February 5th 2008 “Super Duper Tuesday”? The big news in the 2008 White House race this week has been the announcements from the various camps about how successful they have been in fund-raising in the first quarter. Hillary Clinton kicked off earlier in the week with a statement from her campaign that a massive $26m had been raised from about 50,000 donors. The Obama camp waited a couple of days until last night when they announced…
Could Labour be helped in the May elections? What’s the domestic political impact going to be from this afternoon’s news about the Iranian decision to free the fifteen captured British service men and women? After a crisis that looked as though it could have gone on and on this afternoon’s developments must be bringing a huge sigh of relief to the government and Tony Blair. For their continued detention provided an ongoing reminder of the policy that got the Royal…
Is Blair set for a pre-exit polling renaissance? In the latest BrandIndex figures that are on the YouGov site Tony Blair is enjoying what equal his best figures yet since this data started coming out. Last week we commented that he had moved off the bottom level for the first time ever and the latest data shows that he is now 2.5% off the wooden spoon position. Added to that is the detailed data from the latest YouGov poll reproduced…
Are Sarkozy backers right to be so confident? With just over two and a half weeks to go before the first round of voting in the French Presidential election betting opinion in the UK seems to be hardening behind the Right’s Nicolas Sarkozy. Almost everyday at the moment French journalists are contacting me about the UK betting interest in the fight and for them I have presented the chart showing changing sentiment in the betting in terms of implied probabilities…